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The latest figures from cap hpi predict a 48% rise in the supply of potential used LCV stock by 2019, compared to 2015. The forecasted growth is as a result of new van sales over the last few years, which will feed used stock into the market and, along with lacklustre economic growth, force downward pressure on used values.
The prediction comes on the back of analysis of 3-5 year old LCVs in the vehicle park based on historic new registrations.
John Watts, senior editor, commercial vehicles for cap hpi, explains, “Shortages in LCVs, over the last couple of years, have resulted in demand exceeding supply. Our figures suggest that this situation is likely to reverse by 2019, which is good news for buyers wanting quality van stock.
“However, we also forecast a 10-15% fall in like-for-like values, compared to 2015. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecasts have been reduced, the main EU economies are still struggling, and China is not performing as it was. Whilst we’re by no heading for another recession, the overall outlook appears to be rather stagnant.
cap hpi volumes of LCVs 3-5 years old in the vehicle parc