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A FUTURE VALUATIONS ‘blind spot’ for dealers and short-cycle car operators between the three month and one year point has been removed by CAP with the launch of forecasts up to 12 months.
The daily rental and contract hire sectors will welcome the plugging of the forecast residual values gap between Black Book Plus (0-3 months) and Gold Book (12-60 months), but it is dealers who spearheaded the call to CAP for more support in valuing cars up to 12 months ahead.
Demand for forecasts between the three month and one year period has been growing in the motor retail sector as new car order lead times have extended in recent years. That creates challenges in the valuation of incoming part-exchanges in advance of fulfilling new car orders.
In some cases part-exchange valuations are required as far ahead as 12 months, with four months increasingly a more typical benchmark for new car order fulfilment.
This creates problems for dealers who have previously had no independent residual value forecast benchmark to work with, beyond the three month limit offered by CAP’s ‘Black Book Plus’ 0-3 month valuation tool. Anticipating a part-exchange value that is significantly higher than the eventual market value eats into the final deal margin, while under-valuing the future part-exchange risks offering an uncompetitive deal package.
CAP 12 month forecasts solve the problem for dealers and others exposed to short-cycle car risk by providing a fully researched benchmark forecast from CAP’s industry standard Gold Book and Black Book Plus system.
The forecasts are based on a Black Book Live valuation start point and therefore instantly reflect changing market dynamics.
The scale of the need for residual values data spanning the three-to-12-month period ahead surprised even CAP, during research into customer need, according to Senior Forecasting Editor Dylan Setterfield.
He said: “We knew motor retailers and daily rental operators have a need for short-term forecasts but the more people we spoke to about our plans, the more demand we found which we hadn’t originally anticipated.
“For example, many small deals are written all the time – like 50 vehicles for a driving school – and these have a high pound note value. The deeper the understanding of the short-term market, the more profitable those deals can be.”
Robert Hester, editor of Black Book Plus, will run the 0 – 12 months forecasting tool.
He said: “We already understood that motor retailers are frequently valuing part-exchanges further ahead than the three months we extend to in Black Book Plus.
“But I have recently spoken to customers who often need to value part-exchanges against new product for which there is a lead time of up to 12 months.
“The problem for them has been the absence of a reliable, independent and trusted source of benchmark residual value information against which to check their own assumptions.
“But plugging that gap removes a blind spot for many people across the industry – and we are now able to shine a light on that area of the market for the first time.”