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The Vote has happened…Back

brexit image 1023 June 2016, the British people made history and with that, the future of the United Kingdom was set. With a record 46,499,537 people registered to vote, 33,577,342 ballot papers were counted in total.

The result – Brexit

On 24 June 2016, the UK electorate voted to leave the European Union. Results breakdown:

  • 1% of votes (16,141,241) were cast in favour of remain and
  • 9% of votes (17,410,742) were cast in favour of leave.
  • The national turnout figure was 72.2%.
  • 25,359 ballot papers were rejected in total.
  • England and Wales voted strongly for Brexit,
  • London, Scotland and Northern Ireland backed staying in the EU.

Prime Minister David Cameron has announced his resignation.

Immediate impact

The London stock market took the expected hit that was envisaged following Brexit. In the opening minutes of trade, the FTSE 100 index fell more than 8% before regaining some ground by mid-morning.

Earlier today, the pound fell dramatically as the referendum outcome emerged, hitting $1.3236, a fall of more than 10% and a low not seen since 1985.

By early afternoon, it had partially recovered, but was still nearly 8% down on the day.

Laith Khalaf, senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown stated that “Financials and housebuilders are bearing the brunt of the pain, with Lloyds Bank being one of the biggest fallers,” highlighting Lloyds’ 21% slump.

“It’s probably safe to say the public sale of the bank is now firmly in the long grass, and the return to full private ownership of both Lloyds and RBS has been knocked off course.”

The Bank of England said it was “monitoring developments closely” and would take “all necessary steps” to support monetary stability.

Markets:

  • Barclays and RBS initially fell around 30%, settling at around 17%
  • The collapse in Sterling to 1.30 v US $ will increase wholesale costs of fuel by up to 4ppl. Oil prices have also fallen sharply in the wake of the referendum outcome, with Brent crude down 5.2%.
  • The price of Brent crude fell by $2.68 to $48.24 a barrel, its biggest fall since February. At the same time, US crude was down 5.4%, or $2.69, to $47.52 a barrel.
  • The Bank of England said it was “monitoring developments closely” and would take “all necessary steps” to support monetary stability.
  • “This is simply unprecedented, the pound has fallen off a cliff and the FTSE is now following suit,” said Dennis de Jong, managing director of UFX.com. The FTSE’s slump was its biggest one-day fall since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in October 2008.
  • FTSE 250 went down 8% in early afternoon trading.

Interest rates

As reported by the BBC, UK interest rates are likely to hit zero in the next six months as the Bank of England moves to shore up the economy after the vote to leave the EU.

David Tinsley, UK economist at UBS, said Brexit meant “sharply lower growth, a large drop in the pound, and further easing from the Bank of England”.

He expects two rate cuts from the central bank over the next six months.

It would take rates from a current record low of 0.5% to zero.

Rates have been at 0.5% since 2009 as Britain has struggled to recover from the 2008 financial crisis.

UBS also expects the vote to put off rate rises in the US.

Economists had thought Janet Yellen, governor of US central bank the Federal Reserve, would put rates up in September – something UBS now thinks won’t happen.

Mr Tinsley expects UK growth rates to fall to zero in the second half of the year, the economy had been growing by about 2%, and in the long term there could be even greater damage.

Much depended on future trade negotiations, and what type of access the UK had to the European single market.

“In our view [Brexit] could lower long-run UK GDP by about 3.0% under a scenario in which access is very restricted,” he said.

Stakeholder comments

NFDA Comment – Response to the EU Referendum

The National Franchised Dealers Association which represents franchised car and commercial vehicle dealers in the UK, notes the conclusion of the EU Referendum and the decision, by the British public, to vote leave.

Sue Robinson, Director of the NFDA said:

“Following the result of the vote the NFDA will work with our members and their manufacturer partners to help determine the correct next steps.

“The UK is the second largest car market in Europe, with £35.3 billion worth of cars imported to the UK from Europe of which over 820,000 are from Germany alone, 20% of their production.

“We urge the UK government to swiftly negotiate a trade deal across Europe and the rest of the world and to secure currency stability, such that there is a level playing field for our members to operate in. Clearly it is as important to European importers as it is to the UK market that a deal is put in place very quickly.”


The Institute of Directors

The Institute of Directors admits that the referendum result may not have been the one most of its members wanted but now that the UK has decided, it is “imperative” that political leaders manage the transition out of Europe “as smoothly as possible”, it says. Simon Walker, head of the IoD (highlights ours), said:

“British businesses are resilient and, with their characteristic ingenuity, they will weather this storm. It is now beholden on politicians to negotiate a deal with European leaders which preserves the ability of British firms to trade easily with the remaining member states. Even once we have left, the EU will continue to be our biggest trading partner, and the first destination for many companies when they start to export. One thing the Government must do immediately is to guarantee the right to remain of EU citizens currently in the UK. Companies do not want to have to worry about losing valued staff.”
Carolyn Fairbairn, director-general of the CBI, says the urgent priority now is to reassure markets. She said:

“We need strong and calm leadership from the Government, working with the Bank of England, to shore up confidence and stability in the economy.

“The choices we make over the coming months will affect generations to come. This is not a time for rushed decisions.”
FairFuelUK

Will Prices at the Pumps be hiked following the Brexit Victory

We are hearing that major oil supplying countries may differentiate oil prices for the UK and EU States following Vote Leave’s victory in the EU Referendum.  In particular through oil supplied by Russia. This is of course a major concern to 1.3m FairFuelUK’s supporters who as with the 2015 General Election predicted this week’s EU Referendum outcome spot-on.

Howard Cox founder of the FairFuelUK Campaign said:  “Any knee jerk reprisal by penalising UK drivers with higher prices at the pumps through higher oil prices, is nothing short of opportunistic, vindictive and unnecessary. We are horror-struck that there is hear-say, no matter if it is just grapevine gossip, that global oil prices may now be manipulated by economic region. We hope the new Brexit Government Team will ensure 37m UK drivers are not discriminated against. The Brexit victory shows it is London’s Westminster bubble that has been out of touch with the wider majority and it is the greedy currency speculators & parts of fuel supply chain who will probably unscrupulously hike pump prices simply because of this unanticipated result.

Financial Conduct Authority

“Much financial regulation currently applicable in the UK derives from EU legislation. This regulation will remain applicable until any changes are made, which will be a matter for Government and Parliament.”

The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders

Government must now maintain economic stability and secure a deal with the EU which safeguards UK automotive interests. This includes securing tariff-free access to European and other global markets, ensuring we can recruit talent from the EU and the rest of the world and making the UK the most competitive place in Europe for automotive investment”

Posted by Sue Robinson on 24/06/2016